Kagami (Lucky Star) defeats
Amu (Shugo Chara) 1086-678

Well, pretty much, yeah.

The combined power of Amu fans, closet lolicons, and Rena (Kyou, etc) strategic-voters gave Amu a respectable total. Certainly, although the gap was huge, you can say we fought.

They call it a miracle because it has a chance of happening, true … but that chance didn’t come up this time. I think it’s better to save your miracles, in this case, for something like winning the lottery, because it was probably more likely.

Oh well.

Miyako (Hidamari Sketch) defeats
Rena (Higurashi) 933-853

“USO DA!!!!!!!!!!!”

Well, first I thought “Yay, an upset,” since, as the local Overdramatic Guy, I like dramatic turns of events and things like unexpected upsets tend to cause things like that. But then, I started to wonder… had I just taken out Kagami’s biggest contender?

“I cursed them…
Because I cursed them…
They really died…”

“When I wish it…
they really,
they really die!!”

“It can’t be…
I didn’t wish for it…
For this…”

Yes, I like upsets. Yes, I was pretty neutral on Rena – the yandere about canceled the taking people home. But … well … she was a better choice than certain characters I -really- didn’t care about.

That’s twice I’ve forsaken Higurashi fans now. I really worry I’ll have my intestines separated from me before the end of the third round.

I will say though, props to Hidamari fans for banding together. Unless it was all Kagamin strategic votes…

Backstory:
Well, Minami-ke did some cool things in the first and second rounds, but against Clannad characters, they’re pretty dead in the water.

Haruka didn’t quite stand up to Fuuko, and while Kyou may be a bit weaker, Kana is equally the least of the three Minami girls. She doesn’t have the banchou appeal of Haruka nor the loli sarcastic appeal of Chiaki.

Although, her semi-spacey, always-ridiculous attitude is still enjoyable to people like me, it’ll take another curse on Kyou to take her down. Even if she’s not as inexplicably popular as Fuuko, she still can ride on a high Western popularity and probably very good Eastern popularity as well, from the thighs – I mean, tsundere.

I’ll vote for Kana like I voted for Amu, but I’ll save my hopes for the other match in this set…

Prediction:
Kyou, like it or not.

Backstory:
Now -this- is a fight.

One of the giants of Clannad vs. one of the trinity of Lucky Star. Who will emerge victories.

In the blue-haired corner, we’ve got Konata Izumi, flat chest loli-appearance otaku extraordinaire. Certainly, these traits have granted her a great deal of power, and those combined with anti-Key / pro-KyoAni (strange as that might be) votes have powered her quite well this year. However, her weak point lies in the fact that she is a flat chest loli-appearance otaku extraordinaire, and by extension of definition -completely pandering-.

Yes, anime features a lot of pandering girls, but I don’t need this “oh look I’m just like you except with breasts (presumably) and a vagina (let’s not go there)”. Not at all.

Therefore I am placing my hopes that this sort of mentality will give Tomoyo the edge. Maybe a bit less in explicit moe, Tomoyo won’t be the top Clannad character, but with an OVA and a strong character on her side, fans should be flocking to Tomoyo’s aid. Certainly, her storyline is quite rewarding in a sense, as the soft side of Tomoyo feels realistic compared to the back-and-forth snapping of tsunderes.

“In front of me, the girl who likes me stood.”

Isn’t that enough for you to believe?

Predictions:
Tomoyo should have an edge thanks to anti-pandering voters … please …

Hanyuu (Higurashi) defeats
San (Seto no Hanayome) 792-762

And that’s the last time I downplay some rom-com just because I haven’t watched. As you can guess, this means that Seto no Hanayome crashed hard in this round, but it didn’t go without a fight.

Rather, San kept it close the whole way through, even closer than Fuuko vs. Haruka yesterday, closing the gap at the end with a last spurt that just fell short. An admirable effort by her fanbase, but the Higurashi group held on – just barely – this time.

Kirino (Bamboo Blade) defeats
Luna (Seto no Hanayome) 892-608

Kirino ended up the top vote-getter of this round, and although it wasn’t the complete annihilation round 2 was, it’s still a very impressive total that makes me wonder what I missed in Bamboo Blade.

Again, the double vote of Seto no Hanayome kept this from being a landslide, but Kirino kept a comfortable enough lead through all of it to make the Higurashi fight a more interesting one to watch.

Fuuko’s next though for Kirino, and that will be the true test…

Backstory:
Meanwhile, in the next round we have two interesting yet quite unbalanced battles.

First up is, as the 4chan poster aptly notes, “the Clash of the Cold Fronts”, the battle between two tsunderes that spearhead the charge for their respective show. Amu’s got merit in so many different fields – she really is both a moe character and a developed one, being the star of her own magical girl show – and she should rack up a good vote from the lolicon crowd as well. (A vote is a vote.)

But the cries of “Cool and Spicy!” are likely to fall on deaf ears here against the crushing roar of the Kagamin fans. She didn’t quite make it last year, but the fans are there. They are numerous. And they are strong. They will not let their queen be defeated. Personally, I don’t see it in Kagami myself, but I am one of the minority.

Still, the strategic votes side with Amu – the Kyou supporters who don’t want to see a clash of the Purple Hair Tsundere Strike Force next round, the Lucky Star / KyoAni haters, those who are just afraid of Kagami crushing things down the line in general.

But will it be enough?

Prediction:
Kagami should still have enough power to smash Amu by a fair amount. Unfortunately.

And here, two shows, in the same situation at the start of the round, and now on a completely changed battlefield. Both of these shows suffered a heavy loss in round 2, an upset of their top-performing moe character, at the hands of Minami-ke, and were reduced to two hopes for round 3.

Higurashi got one through. Hidamari didn’t. And so it’s Miyako’s back to the wall, with Rena advancing with a cleaver in her hand.

Rena is a tour de force of her own, making it all the way to the quarter-finals of SaiMoe 2007. Certainly she’s taken home a lot of people so far, the most high-profile of which Maria from Hayate the Combat Butler. On any other day this would probably be a cinch for her.

But now is the time of desperation for Hidamari fans. The odds are against them, and they’ve been on the wrong end of the upset all tournament. Now, is it time for the Hidamari fanbase to band together behind their last girl to make an upset?

It’s more likely than Amu pulling through, at least.

Prediction:
Smart money says Rena. Heart says Miyako’s got a chance.

Fuuko (Clannad) defeats
Haruka (Minami-ke) 835-709

Ah. ‘Tis a shame, as I always tend to enjoy an upset and honestly, I never liked Fuuko much. Wasn’t a bad character by any regards – none of the Clannad girls are – but didn’t reach out and grab me. End of her arc was good for some emotional movement, I suppose.

But in any case, it seems the Banchou just couldn’t pull it off, and this was probably the “easiest” of the three Minami matches. Kana hasn’t a chance versus Kyou, and Chiaki vs. Tamaki will be a very steep uphill fight. I guess that depends on how good Kirino does in this next match.

Mikan (To-Love-Ru) defeats
Hiro (Hidamari) 811-590

Well, if you look retroactively at my incorrectly-dated preview (now correctly swapped into the 3-A post) I predicted the opposite result, Hidamari by a comfortable margin. It seems that despite all the rumors of TLR’s popularity heading off a cliff, their one idol left standing has mustered a decent following.

Either that or Hidamari is in serious trouble. Miyako practically is dead in the water versus Rena unless something big happens, so this could be the death knell for yet another slice-of-life show. These are just getting hammered in SaiMoe.

Backstory:
Runa beat Potemayo; perhaps not an important note but kind of a sad one, and one that is worth noting when I have nothing more to say about a character that is relatively on the weak side.

Kirino would appear to be much the same, beating second-tier characters from second-tier visual novels, but she actually racked up the highest vote total of round 2, with no major competition. I wonder why. Is Bamboo Blade the undercover contender in SaiMoe? Time will tell…

Prediction: I would expect this to be a closer match than round 2 suggests, but Kirino should still win easily.

Backstory:
So, about that Higurashi. After losing their loli nii~pah moe-moe squadron leader by one vote – no thanks to at least one stupid aniblogger who didn’t start watching Higurashi until about two weeks ago – the Higurashi fandom has bounced back in solid form. They put Rena and Hanyuu through with no problems, only losing Satoko to their arch-rival Hayate the Combat Butler.

It’s clear that they should and will take no chances from here on out. In this case, killing the head hasn’t doomed the body yet – and it should be expected that barring some more wild upsets, Higurashi should maintain a strong presence in the bracket finals.

This is especially so since San has had a relatively easy time so far, only clashing against lesser slice-of-life and shonen romance characters. Being from a category like that herself, this will be a true test for her, and likely one she can’t overcome.

Judgment:
I will be extremely shocked if Higurashi gets upset again in this round.

Backstory:
Haruka, Minami’s mighty banchou, knows the benefit of the doubt; such an underestimation of power in the last round, against Higurashi’s Rika, led to a stunning single-vote upset for Minami-ke. It was, quite simply, a coup that nearly no one expected, a combination of Haruka’s moe votes and strategic votes that was to be duplicated again by her younger sister Kana.

However, it’s now clear that, with all three Minami sisters advancing, each and every one of them is a threat, with both types of votes unifying to make them the cloaked assassins of SaiMoe. Although, with the last round in mind, they won’t be cloaked much longer.

Odds are that the Clannad / KeyAni fandom will come out with all guns firing as a result; they’ve earned more than enough ire as is, just for being KeyAni, and with Haruka an identified threat, all measures should be taken to stop her.

Which shouldn’t be a problem, as, despite the ambivalence of English fans to Fuuko, she has proven to be one of the top vote gainers of Saimoe, especially when the chips are stacked, such as against Fate in last round, when Fuuko was one of two people to garner 1100+ votes.

Such force should be more than enough to push Fuuko through into the bracket finals, even with Haruka’s combined moe and strategic votes (certainly, Fuuko losing would make Higurashi’s comeback that much easier). Maybe if these two had faced off in the second round, but now, it’s about to get a lot tougher for Minami-ke.

Judgment:
Fuuko, by a comfortable margin.

Backstory:
Mikan, one of the few survivors from the crowded but weak field of shonen comedy-romance characters, has proven to be at least survivable if nothing else. Beating an Aria character and a Clannad girl, albeit lesser ones, takes some skill.

This kind of mediocre fire is matched by Hiro, who beat Vivio of Nanoha in a decently contested battle. And with Hidamari’s leader also assassinated by Minami-ke, they’re likely to come back stronger.

Prediction:
Hidamari fans will have to band together for this one, but with effort, Hiro should win with a narrow margin.