Akari (Aria) defeats
Chihiro (ef) 634-522

‘Twas actually a much closer fight between Chihiro and Akari than I thought; despite a low vote count in the first few rounds, Chihiro made a good stand here against everyone’s most sutekiiiiiiii~ prima. And I respect her for that; I still like Chihiro a lot and I’m looking forward to seeing at least a glimpse of her (perhaps less broken) in ef ~melodies~.

But on the other hand, I’ve already picked Akari as my Feel-Good Story of Saimoe, if she can get much farther, so the vote-split here kind of worries me as to her actual strength. Oh well. I’m glad to see this match got votes in either case, because that means people care.

…Although it was less votes than all the other Round 3 matches so far.

Hinagiku (Hayate) defeats
Eika (Sky Girls) 830-356

Yes, Hinagiku is strong. If things mess up in the G-H brackets we may very well see a clash between her and Nagi later on to see who is the more popular of the top two in Hayate. However, I’m still hoping for Akari, Noe, or both to make a stand.

I guess this is notable for being the widest margin of defeat in Round 3 so far.

If this is one-half as furious as I think it’ll be, this will be an incredible match. All the power of the Nanoha / Shana standoff, which was intensely fought in its own, with added angles in every direction.

You’ve got the KyoAni vote / anti-vote, the pity vote / anti-vote (Nagi was runner-up last year, Maria’s been hammered already, etc), a bit of a tactical vote (although the bracket final will probably be sadly trivial for either girl), and probably more. I should expect the English vote to lean in favor of Tsukasa and the Japanese vote to side with Nagi.

The girls are nearly as different as they come; in one corner, you’ve got a tsundere, high-class girl with a minor in otaku culture, and in the other corner, you’ve got a spacey, bumbling, naive girl who seems more naturally imbued with that which we call ‘moe’. But different tastes for different palettes, and about the only thing these two have in common are a form of immaturity (mental, physical, and otherwise)…

Prediction:
Who do I want to win? Hell if I know.
Who do I think will win? C’mon, if I can’t even answer the first question … Nagi has probably a bit more sympathy at this point, since Lucky Star has shown an inability to step up to the plate in tough battles … but really, it depends on how the KyoAni vote swings. Tsukasa’s got what appears to be a subjective edge in moe quality … but … in Saimoe, that’s the last thing that matters.

Coin flip says Nagi.

Noe, she is moe, but just how so?

True Tears has been somewhat of an enigma in this year’s tournament; it seems to have all the power of a Bamboo Blade or similar undercover contender, but hasn’t done much to show for it yet. It’s tough to call whether this is some real power backing Noe and Hiromi (who very nearly toppled Nanoha in Round 1), or if this is just the power of strategic and hate votes at work.

Either way, I can say two things, one, that today will not be the test of True Tears’s strength – rather, that day is in next round when she takes on Hinagiku, queen of one of the most consistently strong shows in Saimoe.

The second thing, is that I’m glad to see True Tears in the spotlight again. It kind of hurts how while it was praised so much a few months ago, it’s being reduced quicker and quicker to ‘dark horse show with chicken allegory’ in at least my mind. I’m sure this is similar to the plot of at least one dramatic anime – Byousoku 5cm is the first that I could cite – contemplating whether it’s better to cling to what I think I remember of True Tears, or just to move on.

In any case, I’m glad that Saimoe brings these shows back to the spotlight, if only for a little bit.

Prediction:
Noe. I want to see at least one underdog in the top eight this year, and this is just the first step…

Tamaki (Bamboo Blade) defeats
Chiaki (Minami-ke) 768-588

And maybe there wasn’t. 588 votes is kind of sad for the end of a legendary three-girl run. I guess yesterday and today kind of act as a break in the competition, some battles that are pretty simply decided.

Since Minami-ke has a third season coming eventually, and Tamaki nails a weak spot in me, I really have no regrets this time. I think it’s time for Bamboo Blade to make some noise now … Tamaki faces Shana in the next round, that will be another intriguing battle…

Nagisa (Clannad) defeats
Yousei (First Grade Challenge) 846-547

Well, yeah, what did you expect?

I just realized I spoiled in the opening paragraph that Nagisa made it through, but really, it would be really hard for Nagisa to lose a battle like this, even with everyone voting lol-votes and hate-votes and tactical-votes for Yousei. I think Nagisa, even more than the other Clannad girls, deserves to go far here.

Here’s an oddity; two characters that I know and adore, but wouldn’t lay myself on the line for.

Well, I say that, but I’m still rooting for Akari in improbable proportion; it’s probably just that being an enjoyable, laid-back character from a show undoubtedly in its twilight moments trips some switch deep within me, that hopes for the upset and the overcoming of impossible odds.

That hope within me that imagines Akari as the star in some strange Saimoe movie, the Little Mac to the giants of Bracket G, that could go beyond the impossible and kick reason to the curb. The one that could overcome Tsukasa or Nagi and bring a warm, fuzzy feeling to everyone’s hearts (Lucky Star and Hayate fans notwithstanding).

But that challenge isn’t yet. Right now, it’s merely Chihiro, the adorable – if not heart-rending – eyepatch girl from ef. Definitely an intriguing character to watch, and definitely trips the moe meter at times. But today, it’s not meant to be.

Prediction:
Akari should have a comfortable time.

You thought Hayate vs. Aono was bad. This one, Eika pulled down less than 400 votes in the last round, Hinagiku nailed over 800, and I don’t even know Sky Girls enough to root for the upset.

The recent English-translated chapters of the Hayate manga are enough to make me support Hinagiku in at least small proportions, and I’m sure more fervent fans will do the same. Therefore, only a massive failure, double that of Rika’s collapse, will stop Hinagiku from steamrolling for another round.

Prediction:
Hinagiku. No, really. Hinagiku.

Shana (Shakugan no Shana) defeats
Nanoha (Nanoha StrikerS) 987-969

-This- was a battle.

A battle with over 600 fake votes, but definitely a battle. Even compared to the ones previous in this round, the margin stayed close the whole way through, Shana and Nanoha trading positions like two Indycars drafting around Indy.

And in the end, it was Shana’s pass in the penultimate segment (21:00 – 22:00) that she made stick, even with Nanoha gaining a bit at the end.

How’d Shana do it? Who knows – StrikerS has been less popular than the previous Nanoha seasons (or at least, less quality), but then again, the first 13-odd episodes of Shana II were almost painful. Maybe Shana’s a bit more distinct in character – although one could never call a Rie Kugimiya tsundere flat-chest loli-type unique.

Maybe it’s just time for a change; Shana gets bonus cool points for being the last of her show, although the ever-strong Nanoha series is beginning to look outnumbered…

Hayate (Nanoha StrikerS) defeats
Aono (sola) 1120-625

Gah, what can I say? I don’t even get to claim ‘at least Aono made it close’ at any point throughout the round. This just sort of ended miserably, or laughably, depending on your point of view.

Eh, I could analyze it, or I could just say ‘Nanoha is popular with the cool kids, while sola is apparently more popular with people who answer Japanese polls’. Seriously, sola -was- voted “#1 anime of 2007″ after all. Not sure in what criteria, but it certainly did have a good balance to it. A bit of a visual novel spin, but without the overbearing love-drama (although some undertones were excellently added), and with added plot twist and action.

Filled with holes, but the kind that makes it tasty like swiss cheese. Sola, the swiss cheese roller coaster. Yup. Totally better than focusing on the fact that Nanoha won here.

Although, it’s really surprising that Nanoha got less votes than her secondary character. I guess some of the Nanoha and Shana audience overlapped and they leaned the other way.

So, Minami-ke. This is it.

Your banchou and boss defeated, your only hope lies in a sarcastic elementary schoolgirl with funny hair and strange classmates.

That’s actually not too bad odds, with a lot of traits that make Chiaki appealing or entertaining, but her opponent will not make this easy at all. Tamaki may not be from a massively popular show but Bamboo Blade is looking to take over Minami-ke’s throne as the assassin underdog of this competition: Kirino has been pulling down massive vote totals, and Tamaki’s surprised more than once as well.

And after all, who doesn’t love a character like Tamaki’s? Cute, anime-loving, always stands up for justice, badass, whatever you want, you’ve got it in Tamaki. Makes me wonder why I stopped watching Bamboo Blade.

For once, I might not root for the upset here because with everyone else falling by the wayside, Tamaki might be the one non-KeyAni hope I have left. Chiaki is great too but … Minami … it might be time to turn over the mantle.

Prediction:
Tamaki should be exceptionally strong here; Chiaki will challenge but fall reasonably short.

Yousei has been a fun character to watch in SaiMoe. Nobody in English-speaking-land really knows who she is, but we do know that she’s won two matches already one way or another, and we’re all baffled why.

Still, she’s got about 8 pages of images on Danbooru, so don’t underestimate her popularity.

Then again, she’s facing Nagisa.

Clannad is king in Saimoe 2008. That’s all I can really say. And I truly do like Nagisa’s character; even if she’s not as explicitly moe as Kotomi or (arguably) Kyou, she’s still a treat to watch, especially with Tomoya.

So yeah. I don’t think Youhei’s going to pull it off a third time.’

Prediction:
If Nagisa does not win, something is wrong with this world.

Kyou (Clannad) defeats
Kana (Minami-ke) 1031-741

Well, as for the first question, ahaha no. Some things just aren’t going to happen, I suppose. And this leaves it down to Chiaki against Tamaki to prevent a total Minami-ke collapse, but that’s tommorow…

What’s interesting here is that the combined Clannad vote (Kyou / Tomoyo) was enough to defeat Kana on its own, not to mention the split ballots (Kyou / Konata) and solo votes.

I guess it’s going to be a Kagami vs. Kyou battle after all for bracket C, and with the way they’ve smashed their opponents I sure hope it’s going to be a good fight …

Tomoyo (Clannad) defeats
Konata (Lucky Star) 1080-719

But at least on the other hand my faith in society carries on as Tomoyo defeats Konata equally as handily as Kyou defeated Kana.

Kind of surprising, that in the end Konata’s vote count about equaled Kana’s, eh? Makes you wonder how they’d do in a head on fight, but in reality, this was probably the fact that Lucky Star and Clannad’s viewership overlapped quite a bit, and that most fans went for the choice with a dedicated OVA and arc. (Well, almost an arc.)

Backstory:
After all the nonsense about Key and KyoAni girls and massive overpowered fandoms and everything, it’s almost a bit refreshing to see only Nanoha as the overpowered show here. And I speak this as someone who recently waxed a couple hundred words of poetic about Clannad After Story.

Here rather, we have the clash of the two other things Japan and / or the anime fandom tend to like (other than sad girls in stuff) and that is Nanoha and Rie Kugimiya tsunderes – or, alternatively, flat-chest tsunderes, and, one might argue, loli tsunderes. Or just badass girls with swords. Who knows.

In any case this one’s a tough one to call; Nanoha has been getting a good deal of votes and has the advantage of being Nanoha, but Shana’s strong in her own right, and just hasn’t had a chance to show it yet.

Perhaps this will work to Shana’s advantage; since she has not done unpleasant things like defeat Ranka, she will have a lesser hate faction. Maybe those angry at Louise’s defeat will vote her Shana as a substitute. Tamaki strategic-voters might have a hand in this too.

In any case, Nanoha has the raw power, but Shana has strategy on her side. I expect this to be a fine battle, but personally, Shana-tan clinches the melon-pan vote for me.

Prediction:
It should be quite close, similar to the Rena vs. Miyako standoff two matches ago. I give Nanoha the edge but a victory by Shana wouldn’t even be termed an ‘upset’.

Backstory:
So, uh, Hayate is a Nanoha character, a powerful one, that defeated the Lucky Star fourth wheel, Token Loli (Cute Ver.) Yutaka.

By comparison, Aono won the second round with only 400 votes, and the first with 381.

I like Aono. I like Aono quite a bit. I like sola. I like sola quite a bit.
Do I hope Aono wins? Of course.
Do I expect Aono to win? …If I say no, will you prove me wrong?

Prediction:
Aono’s one ray of hope is a complete rampage by Nagisa tactical voters. Either than, or me recruiting about 500 people tommorow.

I’ll start now…