The tension continues to grow as we move out of the second round and into the third, where this is no longer child’s play, a domination of the popular over the obscure, but now, as the 4chan SaiMoe ads infamous put it, moe is “serious f’ing business”.

Certainly we’ve seen flashes of the intensity of SaiMoe, in the high-profile early battles, the Maria vs. Rena clash in round 1, the numerous Minami upsets in round 2, but now the big battles are going to be nearly every battle, as we cut the field down to 32 contenders for the title of moe queen extraordinaire, with only 16 standing in just over a week.

Some battles may still be duds, complete washouts in the third round, but as the bigger picture comes into focus it’s clear that it’s now time to focus on SaiMoe not just on an individual basis but also on a large-scale basis as well, going beyond a single match. For whether you like it or not, it’s not just a character’s moe but also a fanbase’s cunning that will decide the end outcome.

It may be a bit unfair, but in the end, moe is subjective anyway, so it’s more of a trend-spotting tool than a simple black-and-white analysis of character merit. So if a character is overturned ‘unfairly’, it just seems like an extra bit of drama to add to the grandiose storyline of SaiMoe, the biggest sporting event in anime.

It’s not the end result, it’s the ride, that feeling of the true enthusiasm and spirit of an anime fan, and I think it’s important to keep in mind such a thing to keep such feelings positive. After all, “serious business” is anything but …

Once again, just like the end of last round, this post features:
1) Results for all the second-round matches
2) List of all the third-round matches
3) Another pile of random numerical stats
4) Bracket predictions
5) Important matches from round 2 and what to watch for…

Round 2 Results:
A2-1: Rika (Higurashi) vs. Haruka (Minami) and Kiri (SZS)
Haruka (Minami) def. Rika (Higurashi) and Kiri (SZS) 593-592-202

A2-2: Fuuko (Clannad) vs. Fate (Nanoha) and Ginga (Nanoha)
Fuuko (Clannad) def. Fate (Nanoha) and Ginga (Nanoha) 1157-1033-54

A2-3: Murasaki (Kure-nai) vs. Yami (TLR) and San (Seto no Hanayome)
Seto (Seto no Hanayome) def. Yami (TLR) and Murasaki (Kure-nai) 574-556-250

A2-4: C.C. (CGR2) vs. Hanyuu (Higurashi) and Rima (Shugo Chara)
Hanyuu (Higurashi) def. C.C. (CGR2) and Rima (Shugo Chara) 709-700-131

B2-1: Potemayo (Potemayo) vs. Coopa (Druaga) and Luna (Seto no Hanayome)
Runa (Seto no Hanayome) def. Coopa (Druga) and Potemayo (Potemayo) 492-334-325

B2-2: Kirino (Bamboo Blade) vs. Asami (Myself;Yourself) and Flora (NanaDrops)
Kirino (Bamboo Blade) def. Flora (NanaDrops) and Asami (Myself;Yourself) 1115-421-334

B2-3: Aika (Aria) vs. Ryou (Clannad) and Mikan (TLR)
Mikan (TLR) def. Aika (Aria) and Ryou (Clannad) 515-435-359

B2-4: Hiro (Hidamari) vs. Shiho (ZKC) and Vivio (Nanoha)
Hiro (Hidamari) def. Vivio (Nanoha) and Shiho (ZKC) 632-553-193

C2-1: Sakuya (Hayate) vs. Amu (Shugo Chara) and Vita (Nanoha)
Amu (Shugo Chara) def. Vita (Nanoha) and Sakuya (Hayate) 466-430-407

C2-2: Kagami (L*S) vs. Yuka (Minami-ke) and Mizore (Rosario + Vampire)
Kagami (L*S) def. Yuka (Minami-ke) and Mizore (Rosario + Vampire) 734-236-150

C2-3: Kyou (Clannad) vs. Louise (ZnT) and Otome (D.C.II)
Kyou (Clannad) def. Louise (ZnT) and Otome (D.C.II) 848-666-133

C2-4: Yuno (Hidamari) vs. Kana (Minami) and Ink (Moetan)
Kana (Minami) def. Yuno (Hidamari) and Ink (Moetan) 581-577-153

D2-1: Kotomi (Clannad) vs. Yoshinoya (Hidamari) and Tomoyo (Clannad)
Tomoyo (Clannad) def. Kotomi (Clannad) and Yoshinoya (Hidamari) 506-424-325

D2-2: Konata (L*S) vs. Yume (D.C.II) and Haruna (TLR)
Konata (L*S) def. Yume (D.C.II) and Haruna (TLR) 608-298-207

D2-3: Rena (Higurashi) vs. Teana (Nanoha) and Wilhelmina (Shana)
Rena (Higurashi) def. Wilhelmina (Shana) and Teana (Nanoha) 811-403-288

D2-4: Sakura (D.C.II) vs. Miyako (Hidamari) and Rahzel (Hatenkou Yuugi)
Miyako (Hidamari) def. Sakura (D.C.II) and Rahzel (Hatenkou Yuugi) 627-368-197

E2-1: Shana (Shana) vs. Otoha (Sky Girls) and Nona (NanaDrops)
Shana (Shana) def. Otoha (Sky Girls) and Nona (NanaDrops) 672-273-218

E2-2: Nanoha (Nanoha) vs. Ranka (Macross) and Caro (Nanoha)
Nanoha (Nanoha) def. Ranka (Macross) and Caro (Nanoha) 943-683-83

E2-3: Chiaki (Minami) vs. Siesta (ZnT) and Natsumi (Sketchbook)
Chiaki (Minami) def. Siesta (ZnT) and Natsumi (Sketchbook) 544-266-239

E2-4: Tamaki (Bamboo Blade) vs. Horo (Spice and Wolf) and Koko (D.C.II)
Tamaki (Bamboo Blade) def. Horo (Spice and Wolf) and Koko (D.C.II) 918-851-186

F2-1: Yousei (First Grade Challenge) vs. Saki (Hayate) and Miyako (ef)
Yousei (First Grade Challenge) def. Saki (Hayate) and Miyako (ef) 471-374-314

F2-2: Nagisa (Clannad) vs. Athena (Aria) and Sumi (Moetan)
Nagisa (Clannad) def. Athena (Aria) and Sumi (Moetan) 878-466-226

F2-3: Sora (Sketchbook) vs. Aono (sola) and Sasara (TH2)
Aono (sola) def. Sora (Sketchbook) and Sasara (TH2) 400-319-260

F2-4: Yutaka (L*S) vs. Hayate (Nanoha) and Izumi (Hayate)
Hayate (Nanoha) def. Yutaka (L*S) and Izumi (Hayate) 902-775-401

G2-1: Akari (Aria) vs. Anya (CGR2) and Sekai (School Days)
Akari (Aria) def. Sekai (School Days) and Anya (CGR2) 694-448-288

G2-2: Nanaka (Myself;Yourself) vs. Chihiro (ef) and Hazuki (Sketchbook)
Chihiro (ef) def. Nanaka (Myself; Yourself) and Hazuki (Sketchbook) 405-210-185

G2-3: Nagi (Hayate) vs. Ayumu (Hayate) and Satoko (Higurashi)
Nagi (Hayate) def. Satoko (Higurashi) and Ayumu (Hayate) 692-429-273

G2-4: Tsukasa (L*S) vs. Dai (Night Wizard) and Mana (sola)
(Tsukasa wins)

H2-1: Isumi (Hayate) vs. Noe (true tears) and Mei (Clannad)
Noe (true tears) def. Isumi (Hayate) and Mei (Clannad) 640-522-476

H2-2: Suzu (Nagasarete Airantou) vs. Patricia (L*S) and Kurumu (Rosario + Vampire)
Suzu (Nagasarete Airantou) def. Kurumu (Rosario + Vampire) and Patricia (L*S) 329-275-200

H2-3: Hinagiku (Hayate) vs. Yaya (Shugo Chara) and Misao (L*S)
Hinagiku (Hayate) def. Misao (L*S) and Yaya (Shugo Chara) 875-285-196

H2-4: Akeno (Seto no Hanayome) vs. Tiffania (ZnT) and Eika (Sky Girls)

===
Round 3 matchups:

A3-1: Fuuko (Clannad) vs. Haruka (Minami-ke)
A3-2: Hanyuu (Higurashi) vs. Seto (Seto no Hanayome)

B3-1: Kirino (Bamboo Blade) vs. Runa (Seto no Hanayome)
B3-2: Hiro (Hidamari Sketch) vs. Mikan (To-Love-Ru)

C3-1: Kagami (Lucky Star) vs. Amu (Shugo Chara!)
C3-2: Kyou (Clannad) vs. Kana (Minami-ke)

D3-1: Tomoyo (Clannad) vs. Konata (Lucky Star)
D3-2: Rena (Higurashi) vs. Miyako (Hidamari Sketch)

E3-1: Nanoha (Nanoha StrikerS) vs. Shana (Shakugan no Shana)
E3-2: Tamaki (Bamboo Blade) vs. Chiaki (Minami-ke)

F3-1: Nagisa (Clannad) vs. Yousei (First Grade Challenge)
F3-2: Hayate (Nanoha StrikerS) vs. Aono (sola)

G3-1: Akari (Aria) vs. Chihiro (ef)
G3-2: Nagi (Hayate) vs. Tsukasa (Lucky Star)

H3-1: Noe (true tears) vs. Suzu (Nagasarete Airantou)
H3-2: Hinagiku (Hayate) vs. Whoever (Doesn’t Matter)

===
Bracket Predictions:

Bracket A:
Predicted: Rika should have an easy shot, with C.C. in second.
Actual: Rika and C.C. get upset in stunning matches.
Revised: Fuuko and Hanyuu clash in the deciding match, pitting KyoAni love versus a Higurashi need for revenge. Fuuko should win, for better or worse.

Bracket B:
Predicted: Potemayo is moe, but Kirino is more likely. Still a toss-up.
Actual: Potemayo lost, but Kirino is still more likely.
Revised: Still a toss-up. Kirino versus Hiro, and if round 2 isn’t a fluke (1100+!!), Kirino.

Bracket C:
Predicted: Kagami vs. Kyou.
Actual: Kagami and Kyou smashed the competition.
Revised: Kyou vs. Kagami.

Bracket D:
Predicted: KyoAni versus Higurashi, Konata / Kotomi versus Rena.
Actual: Kotomi lost to Tomoyo.
Revised: KyoAni versus the world again, likely Tomoyo vs. Rena. Tomoyo has better mass appeal, but KyoAni hate should prove its downfall as Rena takes the bracket home.

Bracket E:
Predicted: Nanoha or Shana likely to take it over Tamaki or Chiaki.
Actual: Just as planned.
Revised: More likely for Nanoha to beat Tamaki, although the reverse could be possible.

Bracket F:
Predicted: KyoAni fight, Nagisa vs. Yutaka, Yousei for the lulz.
Actual: Hayate tops Yutaka, Yousei is still alive.
Revised: Nagisa overwhelms Yousei and goes on to defeat Hayate.

Bracket G:
Predicted: Akari and Ayumu stand against the world as Hayate and Lucky Star clash in the background. Nagi vs. Tsukasa is guaranteed, but hope for miracles.
Actual: Ayumu fans crushed already.
Revised: Akari fans will need a miracle, but it’s still probably Nagi over Tsukasa.

Bracket H:
Predicted: Something Hayate. Probably Isumi or Hinagiku. Noe has an outside shot.
Actual: Noe beat Isumi. There you go.
Revised: Noe versus Hinagiku, Noe’s got a shot but a slim one.

===
Statdump, Part II:

Total shows remaining: 18
Total shows eliminated round 2: 20
Total shows eliminated round 1: 36

Most Entrants Remaining (Raw):
1) Clannad - 4 (Fuuko, Kyou, Tomoyo, Nagisa)
2T) Lucky Star - 3 (Kagami, Konata, Tsukasa)
2T) Minami-ke - 3 (Haruka, Kana, Chiaki)
Six shows with two remaining: Nanoha, Hayate, Hidamari, Higurashi, Seto no Hanayome, Bamboo Blade

Highest Percentage of Initial Entries Remaining (Min. 2 entries):
1) Minami-ke - 50% (3 / 6)
2) Clannad - 44% (4 / 9)
3T) Nagasarete Airantou - 33% (1 / 3)
3T) True Tears - 33% (1 / 3)
3T) Seto no Hanayome - 33% (2 / 6)
3T) Hidamari Sketch - 33% (2 / 6)

Highest Round 1 - Round 2 Conversion Percentage (Min. 2 entries):
1) Bamboo Blade - 100% (2 / 2)
2) Minami-ke - 75% (3 / 4)
3) Seto no Hanayome - 67% (2 / 3)
4) Clannad - 57% (4 / 7)
And a bunch of shows with 50%.

Worst Round Two Collapses (Did not advance):
1) Da Capo II - 4 characters
2T) Sketchbook - 3 characters
2T) Zero no Tsukaima - 3 characters
And six shows that lost two characters.

Last Stand Shows (Only one character remaining):
First Grade Challenge - Yousei
Nagasarete Airantou - Suzu
True Tears - Noe
ef - Chihiro
sola - Aono
Shugo Chara! - Amu
Shakugan no Shana II - Shana
To-Love-Ru - Mikan
Aria - Akari

===


Important Matches of Round 2:

A2-1: Haruka (Minami) def. Rika (Higurashi) and Kiri (SZS) 593-592-202
C2-4: Kana (Minami) def. Yuno (Hidamari) and Ink (Moetan) 581-577-153
I bet last round, you underestimated the Minami sisters. They had a decently powerful force, but against such powerhouses as Yuno or Rika, they didn’t have a chance.

Or did they?

Each time, by less than 5 votes, the combination of Minami moe, strategic / hate votes, and general apathy caused a shocking upset that rocked the face of SaiMoe.

Now, the Minami sisters have been marked as targets for sure; it’s possibly that such an upset can happen again, but the defending team will be much more aware of the possible threats from these three…

A2-2: Fuuko (Clannad) def. Fate (Nanoha) and Ginga (Nanoha) 1157-1033-54
A2-4: Hanyuu (Higurashi) def. C.C. (CGR2) and Rima (Shugo Chara) 709-700-131
Two more impressive upsets from strong but not overwhelming characters, against at least the English-speaking favorites. It just goes to show how SaiMoe can be turned on its head again and again, and just how intense the voting was in the first bracket, which has played host to so many incredible matches.

B2-2: Kirino (Bamboo Blade) def. Flora (NanaDrops) and Asami (Myself;Yourself) 1115-421-334
I’m really not sure why Kirino got such a massive amount of votes. The Purple Hair KyoAni Club didn’t match this total. Hayate couldn’t muster this total. Higurashi couldn’t. Is this a fluke by Kirino, or the sign of a hidden threat?

E2-4: Tamaki (Bamboo Blade) def. Horo (Spice and Wolf) and Koko (D.C.II) 918-851-186
Another large Bamboo Blade vote count, this time in a closely-fought match, the only one in which Bamboo Blade has been involved in a real firefight. Largely, it has gone under the radar, and as it sneaks up on more popular shows, it’s time to consider that maybe they are the new Minami sisters of future rounds in SaiMoe.

H2-1: Noe (true tears) def. Isumi (Hayate) and Mei (Clannad) 640-522-476
Do you doubt Noe? True Tears came close to dethroning Nanoha of all people, with Hiromi coming within a few dozen votes of accomplishing the impossible. Could Noe stop an impending Hayate rampage from the later brackets?

===
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Daily coverage of SaiMoe starts with round 3. Stay tuned!

-CCY

This post is tagged Fanstuff, SaiMoe