Who I Want to Win: Tomoyo. Personally, I never understood Kagami; maybe it’s just because I think I could find a lonely tsundere anywhere in anime. Turn that argument on me if you wish, but it’s especially true for Kagami’s characteristics.

Who Probably Will Win: Kagami. She’s at the center of the hearts of the Lucky Star fanbase, which seems to me infamous for pushing their favorite characters like no other, but leaving those less loved out in the rain. Tomoyo’s been surviving pretty well, but hasn’t achieved the massive domination of Kagami. I just hope it will be a vaguely close match.

Who I Want to Win: Uu~ A tough call, as I remember liking Tamaki a lot, and feel guilty for having let that feeling fade. Clannad, which is more fresh, has Nagisa, who really feels like the full package. What’s holding me back from endorsing Nagisa fully is probably my dislike of main characters, but that’s just being pedantic. Therefore, Nagisa.

Who Probably Will Win: Nagisa. Clannad and KyoAni general hate might come into play here, but after Tomoyo gets hammered down, Nagisa should have a fair shot at evading the bullets. Tamaki and Nagisa are pretty different moe types, so it’s difficult to say exactly how the chips will fall, but I think for all the Clannad hate, Nagisa should still win a majority here. It will be close, though.

Who I Want to Win: Tsukasa. L-O-V-E, etc. My favorite from Lucky Star for a long time – in addition to whenever I get too much in despair about Miyuki’s lack of popularity – and a moeblob in her own right. It’s a bit over the top, but I still prefer her to Fuuko. Fuuko is a funny character, I’ll give her that, and I did tear up at her arc; I think higher of her than most people, I think, but here, it’s not even a contest. Tsukasa.

Who Probably Will Win: Fuuko. Fuuko gets a lot of votes. I don’t know why, is it the loli aspect? Are us Americans too dense to get the emotion of Fuuko’s really touching arc? In the end, I just find her passable, but not worth putting yourself on the line for. Many, many, many people do though. Fuuko and Tsukasa are close enough in moe characteristics that this battle will skew pretty strongly toward one side, and from past battles, that side has been Fuuko’s.

Who I Want to Win: Kirino has always been somewhat of an enigma in this tournament for me; I never got far enough in Bamboo Blade to really understand her appeal. She managed to make it to the ‘funny and enjoyable character’ column with her scheming and :3 faces, but didn’t quite rack up the moe points – which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, I must add. Hinagiku is mostly the same – she’s a good character in Hayate, her dilemmas are touching, and if things go just as planned she’s probably on the VIP list for Club Nayuki – but her scenes in the late-90s chapters of the manga have been enough to convince me that’s she’s pretty cute when she wants to be. Hinagiku.

Who Probably Will Win: Hinagiku. Kirino’s been too under-the-radar so far, and hasn’t faced much stiff competition; I doubt she can stand up when it counts to a really strong character. By comparison, Hinagiku is carrying the Hayate crown now, and I doubt her fans will go down without a fight. It should be an easy victory for her; but if Kirino has proven one thing, it’s that you can never be sure…

Kagami destroyed Kyou by a fair amount, even on a Clannad double vote day. Part of this may be tsundere order of succession, but she still manages to have some mystical power about her that brings the votes absolutely flooding in.

If she can beat Kyou, Tomoyo should be easy pie. The next two matches will be tougher, but extremely doable.

Lucky Star seemed to be weak in the early rounds, but that’s because the power was concentrated here (and to a lesser extent, Tsukasa and Konata), as opposed to the more widespread strength of Clannad, Hayate, and Nanoha, all falling apart in the later rounds. But for Kagami, there may be no such weakness. Fear her.

Fuuko’s done some strange things this tournament. Some may argue that ’strange thing’, for one, was not losing in the second round to Fate. Strange or not, Fuuko is absurdly powerful and probably is the true Clannad powerhouse of this tournament (which I previously believed to be Kyou or Nagisa).

Why? Japan likes Fuuko. A lot, more than outweighing English ambivalence. Tsukasa was pretty handily outvoted by Hinagiku in the last round, so she might be on the way out; depending on how the Clannad hate-vote goes, Fuuko could have an easy time, or fall apart very quickly.

The role of the underdog, ironically enough, has been passed to Hinagiku, the mentor to such an underdog in the canon Hayate storyline. She is the one most likely to carry the torch of Best of the Rest, the one fighting the crowd of Key and KyoAni monsters with only her sword of maturity, a shield of elegance, and a helmet of slight tsundere to her name.

In addition, she is the last of the once-powerful Hayate legion, picked off constantly throughout the tournament, and so those who once stood behind Nagi, Maria, and Ayumu (yes she’s important~) will back their final princess in the upcoming battles.

Kirino might pull an upset, but Hinagiku has a reasonable advantage, and with momentum at her back, overturning Fuuko and the KyoAni bracket could be possible.

You want moe? Nagisa is moe. If I may step out of my objective, vote-analyzing mode for just a minute, Nagisa undoubtedly – to me – is the one most deserving of the crown, by the definition of it.

Having a simply adorable character, yet one that is still emotionally strong enough to not devolve into moeblobbery, Nagisa really is one character I wouldn’t feel guilty backing. Unfortunately here she’s likely to fall into the middle of the pack, overshadowed by more specific moe trigger traits (as opposed to her comprehensive, albeit not focused package).

In addition, if people want to stop Clannad, Tamaki poses a strong threat to take Nagisa down, and she may end up bowing to Kagami in the end regardless. Still, Nagisa’s got my heart for this one. And that’s pretty impressive for a main character.

Tamaki’s chances mirror Nagisa’s closely enough, fittingly for two girls who will be fighting it out next round. Tamaki is equally a pillar of moe, although in a slightly different shape, that may or may not be to everyone’s taste (featuring a fair dose of fellow otaku pandering that I’ve chosen to overlook). And while she’s strong, she just might not have the killer edge to cut it against more blunt moe warheads.

The difference here lies in the fact that Tamaki is not a KeyAni character, instead representing the other Not KyoAni faction in SaiMoe (other than Hinagiku). As a result, she may get a few more fans than she originally expected, helpful for a show that has been nearly transparent all along.

That invisibility has helped them get this far, but will it allow them to land the killer blow? Somehow, I don’t see it.

Kirino, the second hand to Tamaki, is pretty much in the same boat. She has what can be termed as a viable chance, as she has busted out some pretty eye-popping totals over the last few rounds, but she doesn’t feel like she has that killer instinct, that moe that pierces the heavens into the hearts of fans everywhere. She may be an amusing character, but that won’t count for much here.

In the end, Kirino is strong, and may win a few battles, but in pretty much every matchup she folds to order of dominance, whether to her superior Tamaki, or to a KyoAni character. Going against Hinagiku in the first match doesn’t help either. It’s possible, but I don’t see it happening.

Tsukasa, Tsukasa, what are you doing down here? The twin sister of Kagami and thus also heir to a massive pile of adoration and votes in Saimoe, Tsukasa would appear to be a deadly threat. After all, her spacey, naive, and utterly cute demeanor have won hearts everywhere, including mine.

But on the flip side, this also makes her Public Enemy #1 for the “god damn the moeblobs” demographic who will hammer Tsukasa for perceived unrealism in character. And it seems that her popularity is fading in comparison to the hotter stars of Clannad, or to her sister Kagami.

What especially dooms her chances is going against Fuuko first off; with the two of them sharing similar moe appeal, it may be the return of the Kagami-Kyou crush. Sometimes, moe just isn’t fair.

And last but not least, a ranking that will make all the fans of Actual Characters groan; people will likely argue that Tomoyo is the most mature out of all the characters here, possibly one of two with a mind or a figure above that of a child’s.

And while that’s a bit harsh, Tomoyo really is a less blunt character, who appeals to a more refined moe palate – Key has whittled this taste down to an art with the Strong but Weak Girl. Unfortunately, this hasn’t proved the strongest characteristic this year even if she did take out Kotomi, damn it, and so Tomoyo finds herself at a distinct disadvantage, amplified many, many times by going up against the odds-on favorite, Kagami. It’s not going to be a wonderful tournament for her.

Akari (Aria) defeats
Chihiro (ef) 634-522

‘Twas actually a much closer fight between Chihiro and Akari than I thought; despite a low vote count in the first few rounds, Chihiro made a good stand here against everyone’s most sutekiiiiiiii~ prima. And I respect her for that; I still like Chihiro a lot and I’m looking forward to seeing at least a glimpse of her (perhaps less broken) in ef ~melodies~.

But on the other hand, I’ve already picked Akari as my Feel-Good Story of Saimoe, if she can get much farther, so the vote-split here kind of worries me as to her actual strength. Oh well. I’m glad to see this match got votes in either case, because that means people care.

…Although it was less votes than all the other Round 3 matches so far.

Hinagiku (Hayate) defeats
Eika (Sky Girls) 830-356

Yes, Hinagiku is strong. If things mess up in the G-H brackets we may very well see a clash between her and Nagi later on to see who is the more popular of the top two in Hayate. However, I’m still hoping for Akari, Noe, or both to make a stand.

I guess this is notable for being the widest margin of defeat in Round 3 so far.

If this is one-half as furious as I think it’ll be, this will be an incredible match. All the power of the Nanoha / Shana standoff, which was intensely fought in its own, with added angles in every direction.

You’ve got the KyoAni vote / anti-vote, the pity vote / anti-vote (Nagi was runner-up last year, Maria’s been hammered already, etc), a bit of a tactical vote (although the bracket final will probably be sadly trivial for either girl), and probably more. I should expect the English vote to lean in favor of Tsukasa and the Japanese vote to side with Nagi.

The girls are nearly as different as they come; in one corner, you’ve got a tsundere, high-class girl with a minor in otaku culture, and in the other corner, you’ve got a spacey, bumbling, naive girl who seems more naturally imbued with that which we call ‘moe’. But different tastes for different palettes, and about the only thing these two have in common are a form of immaturity (mental, physical, and otherwise)…

Prediction:
Who do I want to win? Hell if I know.
Who do I think will win? C’mon, if I can’t even answer the first question … Nagi has probably a bit more sympathy at this point, since Lucky Star has shown an inability to step up to the plate in tough battles … but really, it depends on how the KyoAni vote swings. Tsukasa’s got what appears to be a subjective edge in moe quality … but … in Saimoe, that’s the last thing that matters.

Coin flip says Nagi.

Noe, she is moe, but just how so?

True Tears has been somewhat of an enigma in this year’s tournament; it seems to have all the power of a Bamboo Blade or similar undercover contender, but hasn’t done much to show for it yet. It’s tough to call whether this is some real power backing Noe and Hiromi (who very nearly toppled Nanoha in Round 1), or if this is just the power of strategic and hate votes at work.

Either way, I can say two things, one, that today will not be the test of True Tears’s strength – rather, that day is in next round when she takes on Hinagiku, queen of one of the most consistently strong shows in Saimoe.

The second thing, is that I’m glad to see True Tears in the spotlight again. It kind of hurts how while it was praised so much a few months ago, it’s being reduced quicker and quicker to ‘dark horse show with chicken allegory’ in at least my mind. I’m sure this is similar to the plot of at least one dramatic anime – Byousoku 5cm is the first that I could cite – contemplating whether it’s better to cling to what I think I remember of True Tears, or just to move on.

In any case, I’m glad that Saimoe brings these shows back to the spotlight, if only for a little bit.

Prediction:
Noe. I want to see at least one underdog in the top eight this year, and this is just the first step…

Tamaki (Bamboo Blade) defeats
Chiaki (Minami-ke) 768-588

And maybe there wasn’t. 588 votes is kind of sad for the end of a legendary three-girl run. I guess yesterday and today kind of act as a break in the competition, some battles that are pretty simply decided.

Since Minami-ke has a third season coming eventually, and Tamaki nails a weak spot in me, I really have no regrets this time. I think it’s time for Bamboo Blade to make some noise now … Tamaki faces Shana in the next round, that will be another intriguing battle…

Nagisa (Clannad) defeats
Yousei (First Grade Challenge) 846-547

Well, yeah, what did you expect?

I just realized I spoiled in the opening paragraph that Nagisa made it through, but really, it would be really hard for Nagisa to lose a battle like this, even with everyone voting lol-votes and hate-votes and tactical-votes for Yousei. I think Nagisa, even more than the other Clannad girls, deserves to go far here.

Here’s an oddity; two characters that I know and adore, but wouldn’t lay myself on the line for.

Well, I say that, but I’m still rooting for Akari in improbable proportion; it’s probably just that being an enjoyable, laid-back character from a show undoubtedly in its twilight moments trips some switch deep within me, that hopes for the upset and the overcoming of impossible odds.

That hope within me that imagines Akari as the star in some strange Saimoe movie, the Little Mac to the giants of Bracket G, that could go beyond the impossible and kick reason to the curb. The one that could overcome Tsukasa or Nagi and bring a warm, fuzzy feeling to everyone’s hearts (Lucky Star and Hayate fans notwithstanding).

But that challenge isn’t yet. Right now, it’s merely Chihiro, the adorable – if not heart-rending – eyepatch girl from ef. Definitely an intriguing character to watch, and definitely trips the moe meter at times. But today, it’s not meant to be.

Prediction:
Akari should have a comfortable time.

You thought Hayate vs. Aono was bad. This one, Eika pulled down less than 400 votes in the last round, Hinagiku nailed over 800, and I don’t even know Sky Girls enough to root for the upset.

The recent English-translated chapters of the Hayate manga are enough to make me support Hinagiku in at least small proportions, and I’m sure more fervent fans will do the same. Therefore, only a massive failure, double that of Rika’s collapse, will stop Hinagiku from steamrolling for another round.

Prediction:
Hinagiku. No, really. Hinagiku.

Shana (Shakugan no Shana) defeats
Nanoha (Nanoha StrikerS) 987-969

-This- was a battle.

A battle with over 600 fake votes, but definitely a battle. Even compared to the ones previous in this round, the margin stayed close the whole way through, Shana and Nanoha trading positions like two Indycars drafting around Indy.

And in the end, it was Shana’s pass in the penultimate segment (21:00 – 22:00) that she made stick, even with Nanoha gaining a bit at the end.

How’d Shana do it? Who knows – StrikerS has been less popular than the previous Nanoha seasons (or at least, less quality), but then again, the first 13-odd episodes of Shana II were almost painful. Maybe Shana’s a bit more distinct in character – although one could never call a Rie Kugimiya tsundere flat-chest loli-type unique.

Maybe it’s just time for a change; Shana gets bonus cool points for being the last of her show, although the ever-strong Nanoha series is beginning to look outnumbered…

Hayate (Nanoha StrikerS) defeats
Aono (sola) 1120-625

Gah, what can I say? I don’t even get to claim ‘at least Aono made it close’ at any point throughout the round. This just sort of ended miserably, or laughably, depending on your point of view.

Eh, I could analyze it, or I could just say ‘Nanoha is popular with the cool kids, while sola is apparently more popular with people who answer Japanese polls’. Seriously, sola -was- voted “#1 anime of 2007″ after all. Not sure in what criteria, but it certainly did have a good balance to it. A bit of a visual novel spin, but without the overbearing love-drama (although some undertones were excellently added), and with added plot twist and action.

Filled with holes, but the kind that makes it tasty like swiss cheese. Sola, the swiss cheese roller coaster. Yup. Totally better than focusing on the fact that Nanoha won here.

Although, it’s really surprising that Nanoha got less votes than her secondary character. I guess some of the Nanoha and Shana audience overlapped and they leaned the other way.

So, Minami-ke. This is it.

Your banchou and boss defeated, your only hope lies in a sarcastic elementary schoolgirl with funny hair and strange classmates.

That’s actually not too bad odds, with a lot of traits that make Chiaki appealing or entertaining, but her opponent will not make this easy at all. Tamaki may not be from a massively popular show but Bamboo Blade is looking to take over Minami-ke’s throne as the assassin underdog of this competition: Kirino has been pulling down massive vote totals, and Tamaki’s surprised more than once as well.

And after all, who doesn’t love a character like Tamaki’s? Cute, anime-loving, always stands up for justice, badass, whatever you want, you’ve got it in Tamaki. Makes me wonder why I stopped watching Bamboo Blade.

For once, I might not root for the upset here because with everyone else falling by the wayside, Tamaki might be the one non-KeyAni hope I have left. Chiaki is great too but … Minami … it might be time to turn over the mantle.

Prediction:
Tamaki should be exceptionally strong here; Chiaki will challenge but fall reasonably short.

Yousei has been a fun character to watch in SaiMoe. Nobody in English-speaking-land really knows who she is, but we do know that she’s won two matches already one way or another, and we’re all baffled why.

Still, she’s got about 8 pages of images on Danbooru, so don’t underestimate her popularity.

Then again, she’s facing Nagisa.

Clannad is king in Saimoe 2008. That’s all I can really say. And I truly do like Nagisa’s character; even if she’s not as explicitly moe as Kotomi or (arguably) Kyou, she’s still a treat to watch, especially with Tomoya.

So yeah. I don’t think Youhei’s going to pull it off a third time.’

Prediction:
If Nagisa does not win, something is wrong with this world.

Kyou (Clannad) defeats
Kana (Minami-ke) 1031-741

Well, as for the first question, ahaha no. Some things just aren’t going to happen, I suppose. And this leaves it down to Chiaki against Tamaki to prevent a total Minami-ke collapse, but that’s tommorow…

What’s interesting here is that the combined Clannad vote (Kyou / Tomoyo) was enough to defeat Kana on its own, not to mention the split ballots (Kyou / Konata) and solo votes.

I guess it’s going to be a Kagami vs. Kyou battle after all for bracket C, and with the way they’ve smashed their opponents I sure hope it’s going to be a good fight …

Tomoyo (Clannad) defeats
Konata (Lucky Star) 1080-719

But at least on the other hand my faith in society carries on as Tomoyo defeats Konata equally as handily as Kyou defeated Kana.

Kind of surprising, that in the end Konata’s vote count about equaled Kana’s, eh? Makes you wonder how they’d do in a head on fight, but in reality, this was probably the fact that Lucky Star and Clannad’s viewership overlapped quite a bit, and that most fans went for the choice with a dedicated OVA and arc. (Well, almost an arc.)

Backstory:
After all the nonsense about Key and KyoAni girls and massive overpowered fandoms and everything, it’s almost a bit refreshing to see only Nanoha as the overpowered show here. And I speak this as someone who recently waxed a couple hundred words of poetic about Clannad After Story.

Here rather, we have the clash of the two other things Japan and / or the anime fandom tend to like (other than sad girls in stuff) and that is Nanoha and Rie Kugimiya tsunderes – or, alternatively, flat-chest tsunderes, and, one might argue, loli tsunderes. Or just badass girls with swords. Who knows.

In any case this one’s a tough one to call; Nanoha has been getting a good deal of votes and has the advantage of being Nanoha, but Shana’s strong in her own right, and just hasn’t had a chance to show it yet.

Perhaps this will work to Shana’s advantage; since she has not done unpleasant things like defeat Ranka, she will have a lesser hate faction. Maybe those angry at Louise’s defeat will vote her Shana as a substitute. Tamaki strategic-voters might have a hand in this too.

In any case, Nanoha has the raw power, but Shana has strategy on her side. I expect this to be a fine battle, but personally, Shana-tan clinches the melon-pan vote for me.

Prediction:
It should be quite close, similar to the Rena vs. Miyako standoff two matches ago. I give Nanoha the edge but a victory by Shana wouldn’t even be termed an ‘upset’.

Backstory:
So, uh, Hayate is a Nanoha character, a powerful one, that defeated the Lucky Star fourth wheel, Token Loli (Cute Ver.) Yutaka.

By comparison, Aono won the second round with only 400 votes, and the first with 381.

I like Aono. I like Aono quite a bit. I like sola. I like sola quite a bit.
Do I hope Aono wins? Of course.
Do I expect Aono to win? …If I say no, will you prove me wrong?

Prediction:
Aono’s one ray of hope is a complete rampage by Nagisa tactical voters. Either than, or me recruiting about 500 people tommorow.

I’ll start now…

Kagami (Lucky Star) defeats
Amu (Shugo Chara) 1086-678

Well, pretty much, yeah.

The combined power of Amu fans, closet lolicons, and Rena (Kyou, etc) strategic-voters gave Amu a respectable total. Certainly, although the gap was huge, you can say we fought.

They call it a miracle because it has a chance of happening, true … but that chance didn’t come up this time. I think it’s better to save your miracles, in this case, for something like winning the lottery, because it was probably more likely.

Oh well.

Miyako (Hidamari Sketch) defeats
Rena (Higurashi) 933-853

“USO DA!!!!!!!!!!!”

Well, first I thought “Yay, an upset,” since, as the local Overdramatic Guy, I like dramatic turns of events and things like unexpected upsets tend to cause things like that. But then, I started to wonder… had I just taken out Kagami’s biggest contender?

“I cursed them…
Because I cursed them…
They really died…”

“When I wish it…
they really,
they really die!!”

“It can’t be…
I didn’t wish for it…
For this…”

Yes, I like upsets. Yes, I was pretty neutral on Rena – the yandere about canceled the taking people home. But … well … she was a better choice than certain characters I -really- didn’t care about.

That’s twice I’ve forsaken Higurashi fans now. I really worry I’ll have my intestines separated from me before the end of the third round.

I will say though, props to Hidamari fans for banding together. Unless it was all Kagamin strategic votes…

Backstory:
Well, Minami-ke did some cool things in the first and second rounds, but against Clannad characters, they’re pretty dead in the water.

Haruka didn’t quite stand up to Fuuko, and while Kyou may be a bit weaker, Kana is equally the least of the three Minami girls. She doesn’t have the banchou appeal of Haruka nor the loli sarcastic appeal of Chiaki.

Although, her semi-spacey, always-ridiculous attitude is still enjoyable to people like me, it’ll take another curse on Kyou to take her down. Even if she’s not as inexplicably popular as Fuuko, she still can ride on a high Western popularity and probably very good Eastern popularity as well, from the thighs – I mean, tsundere.

I’ll vote for Kana like I voted for Amu, but I’ll save my hopes for the other match in this set…

Prediction:
Kyou, like it or not.

Backstory:
Now -this- is a fight.

One of the giants of Clannad vs. one of the trinity of Lucky Star. Who will emerge victories.

In the blue-haired corner, we’ve got Konata Izumi, flat chest loli-appearance otaku extraordinaire. Certainly, these traits have granted her a great deal of power, and those combined with anti-Key / pro-KyoAni (strange as that might be) votes have powered her quite well this year. However, her weak point lies in the fact that she is a flat chest loli-appearance otaku extraordinaire, and by extension of definition -completely pandering-.

Yes, anime features a lot of pandering girls, but I don’t need this “oh look I’m just like you except with breasts (presumably) and a vagina (let’s not go there)”. Not at all.

Therefore I am placing my hopes that this sort of mentality will give Tomoyo the edge. Maybe a bit less in explicit moe, Tomoyo won’t be the top Clannad character, but with an OVA and a strong character on her side, fans should be flocking to Tomoyo’s aid. Certainly, her storyline is quite rewarding in a sense, as the soft side of Tomoyo feels realistic compared to the back-and-forth snapping of tsunderes.

“In front of me, the girl who likes me stood.”

Isn’t that enough for you to believe?

Predictions:
Tomoyo should have an edge thanks to anti-pandering voters … please …

Hanyuu (Higurashi) defeats
San (Seto no Hanayome) 792-762

And that’s the last time I downplay some rom-com just because I haven’t watched. As you can guess, this means that Seto no Hanayome crashed hard in this round, but it didn’t go without a fight.

Rather, San kept it close the whole way through, even closer than Fuuko vs. Haruka yesterday, closing the gap at the end with a last spurt that just fell short. An admirable effort by her fanbase, but the Higurashi group held on – just barely – this time.

Kirino (Bamboo Blade) defeats
Luna (Seto no Hanayome) 892-608

Kirino ended up the top vote-getter of this round, and although it wasn’t the complete annihilation round 2 was, it’s still a very impressive total that makes me wonder what I missed in Bamboo Blade.

Again, the double vote of Seto no Hanayome kept this from being a landslide, but Kirino kept a comfortable enough lead through all of it to make the Higurashi fight a more interesting one to watch.

Fuuko’s next though for Kirino, and that will be the true test…

Backstory:
Meanwhile, in the next round we have two interesting yet quite unbalanced battles.

First up is, as the 4chan poster aptly notes, “the Clash of the Cold Fronts”, the battle between two tsunderes that spearhead the charge for their respective show. Amu’s got merit in so many different fields – she really is both a moe character and a developed one, being the star of her own magical girl show – and she should rack up a good vote from the lolicon crowd as well. (A vote is a vote.)

But the cries of “Cool and Spicy!” are likely to fall on deaf ears here against the crushing roar of the Kagamin fans. She didn’t quite make it last year, but the fans are there. They are numerous. And they are strong. They will not let their queen be defeated. Personally, I don’t see it in Kagami myself, but I am one of the minority.

Still, the strategic votes side with Amu – the Kyou supporters who don’t want to see a clash of the Purple Hair Tsundere Strike Force next round, the Lucky Star / KyoAni haters, those who are just afraid of Kagami crushing things down the line in general.

But will it be enough?

Prediction:
Kagami should still have enough power to smash Amu by a fair amount. Unfortunately.

And here, two shows, in the same situation at the start of the round, and now on a completely changed battlefield. Both of these shows suffered a heavy loss in round 2, an upset of their top-performing moe character, at the hands of Minami-ke, and were reduced to two hopes for round 3.

Higurashi got one through. Hidamari didn’t. And so it’s Miyako’s back to the wall, with Rena advancing with a cleaver in her hand.

Rena is a tour de force of her own, making it all the way to the quarter-finals of SaiMoe 2007. Certainly she’s taken home a lot of people so far, the most high-profile of which Maria from Hayate the Combat Butler. On any other day this would probably be a cinch for her.

But now is the time of desperation for Hidamari fans. The odds are against them, and they’ve been on the wrong end of the upset all tournament. Now, is it time for the Hidamari fanbase to band together behind their last girl to make an upset?

It’s more likely than Amu pulling through, at least.

Prediction:
Smart money says Rena. Heart says Miyako’s got a chance.

Fuuko (Clannad) defeats
Haruka (Minami-ke) 835-709

Ah. ‘Tis a shame, as I always tend to enjoy an upset and honestly, I never liked Fuuko much. Wasn’t a bad character by any regards – none of the Clannad girls are – but didn’t reach out and grab me. End of her arc was good for some emotional movement, I suppose.

But in any case, it seems the Banchou just couldn’t pull it off, and this was probably the “easiest” of the three Minami matches. Kana hasn’t a chance versus Kyou, and Chiaki vs. Tamaki will be a very steep uphill fight. I guess that depends on how good Kirino does in this next match.

Mikan (To-Love-Ru) defeats
Hiro (Hidamari) 811-590

Well, if you look retroactively at my incorrectly-dated preview (now correctly swapped into the 3-A post) I predicted the opposite result, Hidamari by a comfortable margin. It seems that despite all the rumors of TLR’s popularity heading off a cliff, their one idol left standing has mustered a decent following.

Either that or Hidamari is in serious trouble. Miyako practically is dead in the water versus Rena unless something big happens, so this could be the death knell for yet another slice-of-life show. These are just getting hammered in SaiMoe.

Backstory:
Runa beat Potemayo; perhaps not an important note but kind of a sad one, and one that is worth noting when I have nothing more to say about a character that is relatively on the weak side.

Kirino would appear to be much the same, beating second-tier characters from second-tier visual novels, but she actually racked up the highest vote total of round 2, with no major competition. I wonder why. Is Bamboo Blade the undercover contender in SaiMoe? Time will tell…

Prediction: I would expect this to be a closer match than round 2 suggests, but Kirino should still win easily.

Backstory:
So, about that Higurashi. After losing their loli nii~pah moe-moe squadron leader by one vote – no thanks to at least one stupid aniblogger who didn’t start watching Higurashi until about two weeks ago – the Higurashi fandom has bounced back in solid form. They put Rena and Hanyuu through with no problems, only losing Satoko to their arch-rival Hayate the Combat Butler.

It’s clear that they should and will take no chances from here on out. In this case, killing the head hasn’t doomed the body yet – and it should be expected that barring some more wild upsets, Higurashi should maintain a strong presence in the bracket finals.

This is especially so since San has had a relatively easy time so far, only clashing against lesser slice-of-life and shonen romance characters. Being from a category like that herself, this will be a true test for her, and likely one she can’t overcome.

Judgment:
I will be extremely shocked if Higurashi gets upset again in this round.

Backstory:
Haruka, Minami’s mighty banchou, knows the benefit of the doubt; such an underestimation of power in the last round, against Higurashi’s Rika, led to a stunning single-vote upset for Minami-ke. It was, quite simply, a coup that nearly no one expected, a combination of Haruka’s moe votes and strategic votes that was to be duplicated again by her younger sister Kana.

However, it’s now clear that, with all three Minami sisters advancing, each and every one of them is a threat, with both types of votes unifying to make them the cloaked assassins of SaiMoe. Although, with the last round in mind, they won’t be cloaked much longer.

Odds are that the Clannad / KeyAni fandom will come out with all guns firing as a result; they’ve earned more than enough ire as is, just for being KeyAni, and with Haruka an identified threat, all measures should be taken to stop her.

Which shouldn’t be a problem, as, despite the ambivalence of English fans to Fuuko, she has proven to be one of the top vote gainers of Saimoe, especially when the chips are stacked, such as against Fate in last round, when Fuuko was one of two people to garner 1100+ votes.

Such force should be more than enough to push Fuuko through into the bracket finals, even with Haruka’s combined moe and strategic votes (certainly, Fuuko losing would make Higurashi’s comeback that much easier). Maybe if these two had faced off in the second round, but now, it’s about to get a lot tougher for Minami-ke.

Judgment:
Fuuko, by a comfortable margin.

Backstory:
Mikan, one of the few survivors from the crowded but weak field of shonen comedy-romance characters, has proven to be at least survivable if nothing else. Beating an Aria character and a Clannad girl, albeit lesser ones, takes some skill.

This kind of mediocre fire is matched by Hiro, who beat Vivio of Nanoha in a decently contested battle. And with Hidamari’s leader also assassinated by Minami-ke, they’re likely to come back stronger.

Prediction:
Hidamari fans will have to band together for this one, but with effort, Hiro should win with a narrow margin.