Who I Want to Win: Tomoyo. Personally, I never understood Kagami; maybe it’s just because I think I could find a lonely tsundere anywhere in anime. Turn that argument on me if you wish, but it’s especially true for Kagami’s characteristics.

Who Probably Will Win: Kagami. She’s at the center of the hearts of the Lucky Star fanbase, which seems to me infamous for pushing their favorite characters like no other, but leaving those less loved out in the rain. Tomoyo’s been surviving pretty well, but hasn’t achieved the massive domination of Kagami. I just hope it will be a vaguely close match.

Who I Want to Win: Uu~ A tough call, as I remember liking Tamaki a lot, and feel guilty for having let that feeling fade. Clannad, which is more fresh, has Nagisa, who really feels like the full package. What’s holding me back from endorsing Nagisa fully is probably my dislike of main characters, but that’s just being pedantic. Therefore, Nagisa.

Who Probably Will Win: Nagisa. Clannad and KyoAni general hate might come into play here, but after Tomoyo gets hammered down, Nagisa should have a fair shot at evading the bullets. Tamaki and Nagisa are pretty different moe types, so it’s difficult to say exactly how the chips will fall, but I think for all the Clannad hate, Nagisa should still win a majority here. It will be close, though.

Who I Want to Win: Tsukasa. L-O-V-E, etc. My favorite from Lucky Star for a long time – in addition to whenever I get too much in despair about Miyuki’s lack of popularity – and a moeblob in her own right. It’s a bit over the top, but I still prefer her to Fuuko. Fuuko is a funny character, I’ll give her that, and I did tear up at her arc; I think higher of her than most people, I think, but here, it’s not even a contest. Tsukasa.

Who Probably Will Win: Fuuko. Fuuko gets a lot of votes. I don’t know why, is it the loli aspect? Are us Americans too dense to get the emotion of Fuuko’s really touching arc? In the end, I just find her passable, but not worth putting yourself on the line for. Many, many, many people do though. Fuuko and Tsukasa are close enough in moe characteristics that this battle will skew pretty strongly toward one side, and from past battles, that side has been Fuuko’s.

Who I Want to Win: Kirino has always been somewhat of an enigma in this tournament for me; I never got far enough in Bamboo Blade to really understand her appeal. She managed to make it to the ‘funny and enjoyable character’ column with her scheming and :3 faces, but didn’t quite rack up the moe points – which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, I must add. Hinagiku is mostly the same – she’s a good character in Hayate, her dilemmas are touching, and if things go just as planned she’s probably on the VIP list for Club Nayuki – but her scenes in the late-90s chapters of the manga have been enough to convince me that’s she’s pretty cute when she wants to be. Hinagiku.

Who Probably Will Win: Hinagiku. Kirino’s been too under-the-radar so far, and hasn’t faced much stiff competition; I doubt she can stand up when it counts to a really strong character. By comparison, Hinagiku is carrying the Hayate crown now, and I doubt her fans will go down without a fight. It should be an easy victory for her; but if Kirino has proven one thing, it’s that you can never be sure…

Kagami destroyed Kyou by a fair amount, even on a Clannad double vote day. Part of this may be tsundere order of succession, but she still manages to have some mystical power about her that brings the votes absolutely flooding in.

If she can beat Kyou, Tomoyo should be easy pie. The next two matches will be tougher, but extremely doable.

Lucky Star seemed to be weak in the early rounds, but that’s because the power was concentrated here (and to a lesser extent, Tsukasa and Konata), as opposed to the more widespread strength of Clannad, Hayate, and Nanoha, all falling apart in the later rounds. But for Kagami, there may be no such weakness. Fear her.

Fuuko’s done some strange things this tournament. Some may argue that ’strange thing’, for one, was not losing in the second round to Fate. Strange or not, Fuuko is absurdly powerful and probably is the true Clannad powerhouse of this tournament (which I previously believed to be Kyou or Nagisa).

Why? Japan likes Fuuko. A lot, more than outweighing English ambivalence. Tsukasa was pretty handily outvoted by Hinagiku in the last round, so she might be on the way out; depending on how the Clannad hate-vote goes, Fuuko could have an easy time, or fall apart very quickly.

The role of the underdog, ironically enough, has been passed to Hinagiku, the mentor to such an underdog in the canon Hayate storyline. She is the one most likely to carry the torch of Best of the Rest, the one fighting the crowd of Key and KyoAni monsters with only her sword of maturity, a shield of elegance, and a helmet of slight tsundere to her name.

In addition, she is the last of the once-powerful Hayate legion, picked off constantly throughout the tournament, and so those who once stood behind Nagi, Maria, and Ayumu (yes she’s important~) will back their final princess in the upcoming battles.

Kirino might pull an upset, but Hinagiku has a reasonable advantage, and with momentum at her back, overturning Fuuko and the KyoAni bracket could be possible.

You want moe? Nagisa is moe. If I may step out of my objective, vote-analyzing mode for just a minute, Nagisa undoubtedly – to me – is the one most deserving of the crown, by the definition of it.

Having a simply adorable character, yet one that is still emotionally strong enough to not devolve into moeblobbery, Nagisa really is one character I wouldn’t feel guilty backing. Unfortunately here she’s likely to fall into the middle of the pack, overshadowed by more specific moe trigger traits (as opposed to her comprehensive, albeit not focused package).

In addition, if people want to stop Clannad, Tamaki poses a strong threat to take Nagisa down, and she may end up bowing to Kagami in the end regardless. Still, Nagisa’s got my heart for this one. And that’s pretty impressive for a main character.

Tamaki’s chances mirror Nagisa’s closely enough, fittingly for two girls who will be fighting it out next round. Tamaki is equally a pillar of moe, although in a slightly different shape, that may or may not be to everyone’s taste (featuring a fair dose of fellow otaku pandering that I’ve chosen to overlook). And while she’s strong, she just might not have the killer edge to cut it against more blunt moe warheads.

The difference here lies in the fact that Tamaki is not a KeyAni character, instead representing the other Not KyoAni faction in SaiMoe (other than Hinagiku). As a result, she may get a few more fans than she originally expected, helpful for a show that has been nearly transparent all along.

That invisibility has helped them get this far, but will it allow them to land the killer blow? Somehow, I don’t see it.

Kirino, the second hand to Tamaki, is pretty much in the same boat. She has what can be termed as a viable chance, as she has busted out some pretty eye-popping totals over the last few rounds, but she doesn’t feel like she has that killer instinct, that moe that pierces the heavens into the hearts of fans everywhere. She may be an amusing character, but that won’t count for much here.

In the end, Kirino is strong, and may win a few battles, but in pretty much every matchup she folds to order of dominance, whether to her superior Tamaki, or to a KyoAni character. Going against Hinagiku in the first match doesn’t help either. It’s possible, but I don’t see it happening.

Tsukasa, Tsukasa, what are you doing down here? The twin sister of Kagami and thus also heir to a massive pile of adoration and votes in Saimoe, Tsukasa would appear to be a deadly threat. After all, her spacey, naive, and utterly cute demeanor have won hearts everywhere, including mine.

But on the flip side, this also makes her Public Enemy #1 for the “god damn the moeblobs” demographic who will hammer Tsukasa for perceived unrealism in character. And it seems that her popularity is fading in comparison to the hotter stars of Clannad, or to her sister Kagami.

What especially dooms her chances is going against Fuuko first off; with the two of them sharing similar moe appeal, it may be the return of the Kagami-Kyou crush. Sometimes, moe just isn’t fair.

And last but not least, a ranking that will make all the fans of Actual Characters groan; people will likely argue that Tomoyo is the most mature out of all the characters here, possibly one of two with a mind or a figure above that of a child’s.

And while that’s a bit harsh, Tomoyo really is a less blunt character, who appeals to a more refined moe palate – Key has whittled this taste down to an art with the Strong but Weak Girl. Unfortunately, this hasn’t proved the strongest characteristic this year even if she did take out Kotomi, damn it, and so Tomoyo finds herself at a distinct disadvantage, amplified many, many times by going up against the odds-on favorite, Kagami. It’s not going to be a wonderful tournament for her.