“Gambling: the sure way of getting nothing from something.”
I think I’ve finally found the perfect analogy for SaiMoe [2008] and that is that of a casino, featuring lots of gambling, not of the ear-cutting variety, but of the conventional monetary kind.
The fact is, gambling is logistically dumb. If you go to a casino more likely than not you’re going to be slowly but surely robbed blind; you chase after that chance of beating the odds, but in the end it’s not in your favor, and you’ve wasted a lot of your time just to lose a lot of your money.
Similarly, many fans will probably find themselves, emotionally and moe-wise, quite bankrupt as we near the exciting conclusion of SaiMoe. As we’ve rolled the dice and doubled down again and again on the Hayate and Nanoha votes, the votes seemed to just be rolling in like water in the first few rounds.
But eventually the luck runs out, you get a bit too cocky, and disaster strikes. You play a little clumsily with your Higurashi cards and get overturned by Minami-ke pulling an ace on the river. You go all in on Noe, a strong but not powerful girl, and get wiped by pocket Hinagiku.
The fact is, although you may be a Clannad fan and breaking the bank, the odds are that during SaiMoe, at one point or another you’re going to get cleaned out and end up begging for fare to catch the bus back to Neo-Venezia.
You can play the innocent games, just you vs. the numbers, or you can go against each other in a fierce person vs. person duel. But you, will probably lose, whether that loss is physical or emotional.
So, why gamble? Why SaiMoe?
It’s one of those enigmas of the human – or rather here, the otaku – mind, which you just can’t explain. There’s something about the aura that draws you in. The energy as everyone funnels their spirit towards the same goal, and here, only one person’s striking it rich.
You know you’re probably going to lose and you don’t care, because you’re finally living. You’re putting yourself on the line for what you love and the world can be damned if you get struck down.
And there’s always that hope. For every hundred losers, there’s got to be a winner. There’s always that chance – that little shot of overturning the odds – that you can grasp at, that little miracle you can make happen.
It’s stupid. But it’s worth it.
And so, all I can say for the SaiMoe quarterfinals is … place your bets. It may not be the brightest nor the most intellectually sound competition, and it can certainly get sleazy at times, but there’s something about putting your heart out there that makes it worthwhile.
So as I pray, Unlimited Moe Works:
Quarter-Final Matchups:
Kagami Hiiragi (Lucky Star)
vs. Tomoyo Sakagami (Clannad)
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Who I Want to Win: Tomoyo. Personally, I never understood Kagami; maybe it’s just because I think I could find a lonely tsundere anywhere in anime. Turn that argument on me if you wish, but it’s especially true for Kagami’s characteristics.
Who Probably Will Win: Kagami. She’s at the center of the hearts of the Lucky Star fanbase, which seems to me infamous for pushing their favorite characters like no other, but leaving those less loved out in the rain. Tomoyo’s been surviving pretty well, but hasn’t achieved the massive domination of Kagami. I just hope it will be a vaguely close match.
Nagisa Furukawa (Clannad)
vs. Tamaki Kawazoe (Bamboo Blade)
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Who I Want to Win: Uu~ A tough call, as I remember liking Tamaki a lot, and feel guilty for having let that feeling fade. Clannad, which is more fresh, has Nagisa, who really feels like the full package. What’s holding me back from endorsing Nagisa fully is probably my dislike of main characters, but that’s just being pedantic. Therefore, Nagisa.
Who Probably Will Win: Nagisa. Clannad and KyoAni general hate might come into play here, but after Tomoyo gets hammered down, Nagisa should have a fair shot at evading the bullets. Tamaki and Nagisa are pretty different moe types, so it’s difficult to say exactly how the chips will fall, but I think for all the Clannad hate, Nagisa should still win a majority here. It will be close, though.
Fuuko Ibuki (Clannad)
vs. Tsukasa Hiiragi (Lucky Star)
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Who I Want to Win: Tsukasa. L-O-V-E, etc. My favorite from Lucky Star for a long time – in addition to whenever I get too much in despair about Miyuki’s lack of popularity – and a moeblob in her own right. It’s a bit over the top, but I still prefer her to Fuuko. Fuuko is a funny character, I’ll give her that, and I did tear up at her arc; I think higher of her than most people, I think, but here, it’s not even a contest. Tsukasa.
Who Probably Will Win: Fuuko. Fuuko gets a lot of votes. I don’t know why, is it the loli aspect? Are us Americans too dense to get the emotion of Fuuko’s really touching arc? In the end, I just find her passable, but not worth putting yourself on the line for. Many, many, many people do though. Fuuko and Tsukasa are close enough in moe characteristics that this battle will skew pretty strongly toward one side, and from past battles, that side has been Fuuko’s.
Hinagiku Katsura (Hayate the Combat Butler)
vs. Kirino Chiba (Bamboo Blade)
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Who I Want to Win: Kirino has always been somewhat of an enigma in this tournament for me; I never got far enough in Bamboo Blade to really understand her appeal. She managed to make it to the ‘funny and enjoyable character’ column with her scheming and :3 faces, but didn’t quite rack up the moe points – which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, I must add. Hinagiku is mostly the same – she’s a good character in Hayate, her dilemmas are touching, and if things go just as planned she’s probably on the VIP list for Club Nayuki – but her scenes in the late-90s chapters of the manga have been enough to convince me that’s she’s pretty cute when she wants to be. Hinagiku.
Who Probably Will Win: Hinagiku. Kirino’s been too under-the-radar so far, and hasn’t faced much stiff competition; I doubt she can stand up when it counts to a really strong character. By comparison, Hinagiku is carrying the Hayate crown now, and I doubt her fans will go down without a fight. It should be an easy victory for her; but if Kirino has proven one thing, it’s that you can never be sure…
Odds to Win:
Kagami – 4 to 1
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Kagami destroyed Kyou by a fair amount, even on a Clannad double vote day. Part of this may be tsundere order of succession, but she still manages to have some mystical power about her that brings the votes absolutely flooding in.
If she can beat Kyou, Tomoyo should be easy pie. The next two matches will be tougher, but extremely doable.
Lucky Star seemed to be weak in the early rounds, but that’s because the power was concentrated here (and to a lesser extent, Tsukasa and Konata), as opposed to the more widespread strength of Clannad, Hayate, and Nanoha, all falling apart in the later rounds. But for Kagami, there may be no such weakness. Fear her.
Fuuko – 6 to 1
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Fuuko’s done some strange things this tournament. Some may argue that ’strange thing’, for one, was not losing in the second round to Fate. Strange or not, Fuuko is absurdly powerful and probably is the true Clannad powerhouse of this tournament (which I previously believed to be Kyou or Nagisa).
Why? Japan likes Fuuko. A lot, more than outweighing English ambivalence. Tsukasa was pretty handily outvoted by Hinagiku in the last round, so she might be on the way out; depending on how the Clannad hate-vote goes, Fuuko could have an easy time, or fall apart very quickly.
Hinagiku – 7 to 1
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The role of the underdog, ironically enough, has been passed to Hinagiku, the mentor to such an underdog in the canon Hayate storyline. She is the one most likely to carry the torch of Best of the Rest, the one fighting the crowd of Key and KyoAni monsters with only her sword of maturity, a shield of elegance, and a helmet of slight tsundere to her name.
In addition, she is the last of the once-powerful Hayate legion, picked off constantly throughout the tournament, and so those who once stood behind Nagi, Maria, and Ayumu (yes she’s important~) will back their final princess in the upcoming battles.
Kirino might pull an upset, but Hinagiku has a reasonable advantage, and with momentum at her back, overturning Fuuko and the KyoAni bracket could be possible.
Nagisa – 8 to 1
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You want moe? Nagisa is moe. If I may step out of my objective, vote-analyzing mode for just a minute, Nagisa undoubtedly – to me – is the one most deserving of the crown, by the definition of it.
Having a simply adorable character, yet one that is still emotionally strong enough to not devolve into moeblobbery, Nagisa really is one character I wouldn’t feel guilty backing. Unfortunately here she’s likely to fall into the middle of the pack, overshadowed by more specific moe trigger traits (as opposed to her comprehensive, albeit not focused package).
In addition, if people want to stop Clannad, Tamaki poses a strong threat to take Nagisa down, and she may end up bowing to Kagami in the end regardless. Still, Nagisa’s got my heart for this one. And that’s pretty impressive for a main character.
Tamaki – 8 to 1
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Tamaki’s chances mirror Nagisa’s closely enough, fittingly for two girls who will be fighting it out next round. Tamaki is equally a pillar of moe, although in a slightly different shape, that may or may not be to everyone’s taste (featuring a fair dose of fellow otaku pandering that I’ve chosen to overlook). And while she’s strong, she just might not have the killer edge to cut it against more blunt moe warheads.
The difference here lies in the fact that Tamaki is not a KeyAni character, instead representing the other Not KyoAni faction in SaiMoe (other than Hinagiku). As a result, she may get a few more fans than she originally expected, helpful for a show that has been nearly transparent all along.
That invisibility has helped them get this far, but will it allow them to land the killer blow? Somehow, I don’t see it.
Kirino – 12 to 1
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Kirino, the second hand to Tamaki, is pretty much in the same boat. She has what can be termed as a viable chance, as she has busted out some pretty eye-popping totals over the last few rounds, but she doesn’t feel like she has that killer instinct, that moe that pierces the heavens into the hearts of fans everywhere. She may be an amusing character, but that won’t count for much here.
In the end, Kirino is strong, and may win a few battles, but in pretty much every matchup she folds to order of dominance, whether to her superior Tamaki, or to a KyoAni character. Going against Hinagiku in the first match doesn’t help either. It’s possible, but I don’t see it happening.
Tsukasa – 12 to 1
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Tsukasa, Tsukasa, what are you doing down here? The twin sister of Kagami and thus also heir to a massive pile of adoration and votes in Saimoe, Tsukasa would appear to be a deadly threat. After all, her spacey, naive, and utterly cute demeanor have won hearts everywhere, including mine.
But on the flip side, this also makes her Public Enemy #1 for the “god damn the moeblobs” demographic who will hammer Tsukasa for perceived unrealism in character. And it seems that her popularity is fading in comparison to the hotter stars of Clannad, or to her sister Kagami.
What especially dooms her chances is going against Fuuko first off; with the two of them sharing similar moe appeal, it may be the return of the Kagami-Kyou crush. Sometimes, moe just isn’t fair.
Tomoyo – 16 to 1
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And last but not least, a ranking that will make all the fans of Actual Characters groan; people will likely argue that Tomoyo is the most mature out of all the characters here, possibly one of two with a mind or a figure above that of a child’s.
And while that’s a bit harsh, Tomoyo really is a less blunt character, who appeals to a more refined moe palate – Key has whittled this taste down to an art with the Strong but Weak Girl. Unfortunately, this hasn’t proved the strongest characteristic this year even if she did take out Kotomi, damn it, and so Tomoyo finds herself at a distinct disadvantage, amplified many, many times by going up against the odds-on favorite, Kagami. It’s not going to be a wonderful tournament for her.
The odds may seem spread, but the chances are limitless in the tournament of dreams. Certainly, although the odds seemed stacked, a revolution can still occur. And only by your participation, can you make it happen. Let’s keep the spirit of Saimoe going strong in these twilight hours of the 2008 tournament…
-CCY
(Do you feel lucky … punk?)
Tagged as Fanstuff, SaiMoe + Categorized as Fanstuff, SaiMoe
I used to follow SaiMoe quite fervently before, even making handmade charts and posting them on a wall to remind myself who’s winning and who isn’t, but I guess that passion somehow just died out. I think it was around the time when Fate lost to DESU. It just seemed so illogical that I guess I quit.
I place my bet on Tsukasa by virtue of logic, and Hina by virtue of fanboyism.
All aboard the Clannad Express Train as it curb stomps everything in its way. The only foreseeable obstacles are the Hiiragi sisters, both of whom have a good chance to go all the way.
Unlimited Moe Works indeed XD
Personally, I agree that Tomoyo has quite a good chance of winning, though I can’t help but root for Nagisa and Tsukasa/Kagami. Either way, though, things are getting especially exciting now that we’re nearing the end of the tournament; gambling sure is intriguing, isn’t it?
@Zeroblade: Yeah, I busy myself a lot falling in and out of Saimoe; last year, I was all over the prelims, but then when it came to the actual tournament, nothing. And here I skipped round 4 …
Still, my love for the dramatic and the ridiculous allows me to enjoy Saimoe, one way or another. Hopefully you can at least take the time to vote. ^^
@C.I.: I won’t complain if either of those win. I think my vendetta is just against Fuuko and Kagami, but I really shouldn’t say that~
@Yamcha: You’ve summarized it pretty well. Tsukasa, I still can’t decide; if she can get past Fuuko she’ll stomp the field for a good while, but that’s going to be a very hard first match for her, I believe.
@ETERNAL: Psst…you’ve got it backwards … I’m giving Tomoyo the worst odds … I really can’t see it happening over Kagami in this round. As cool as that would be, though… gambling wouldn’t fuel an entire city if it wasn’t intriguing, and we wouldn’t have this many crazy moe tournaments if we weren’t into this kind of competition! :D
Now I feel compelled to go to Atlantic City this weekend…
My initial gut feeling was that any show that is still actively being watched has the greater exposure and the greater chance of advancing. So far that has held true with clannad. However, these next few rounds concern me greatly for clannad. While top-to-bottom they are the most complete team remaining, the only two characters who had impressive earlier round victories was Kyou and Fuuko.
Good job with the odds making. I agree with Kagami and Fuuko odds with their current body of work in the previous rounds. I also like how you take in odds relative to matchups (just like in sports). Poor Tomoyo and Tsukasa.
GO KAGAMIN!! :D